Study On The Dynamic Changes Between Cultivated Land Demands And Supplies In Sichuan Province

As a typical agricultural and population province, it is very important to predict andanalyze the supply and demand of cultivated land in the future in Sichuan Province, on theground of increasing population and decreasing quantity and quality of cultivated land.This paper predicts and analyzes the supply and demand of infield in Sichuan in the future15 years (2006 to 2020) by using Grey-Markov theory and other methods. Based on sometheoretic, it is analyzed the supply and demand of infield in Sichuan from the fivedimensionalities such as amount, average, quality, area and time. The result showed asfollow:The cultivated land condition for Sichuan Province might be seriously because thesupplies will less than the demands temporarily from the amount, average and quality in theyear of 2015. In the meantime, the regional disparity of the cultivated land in Sichuan isvery great. The amount, average and quality are very serious in all area of Sichuan, exceptto Middle and Eastern of Sichuan.As a typical grain producing area of Sichuan, the supplies will more than the demandstemporarily from the amount and average of 2020 in Middle Sichuan Basin. And thecircumstances is strained from the quality at the same time. It will be sufficient of thecultivated land in the Northeast area of Sichuan Basin,because this area is abound ininfield resources.With the economy develops, the supplies will less than the demands temporarily fromthe amount and average in the year of 2012 in ChengDeMian area. And the circumstancesis also strained from the quality in the year of 2010. By the same token, the supplies willless than the demands temporarily from the amount and average in the year of 2012 inSouthwest area of Sichuan Basin. And the circumstances is strained from the quality inthe year of 2019.The condition of cultivated land will be seriously in the Northwest Highland mountainarea of Sichuan Province because the supplies will less than the demands temporarily fromthe amount, average and quality in the year of 2007.Some countermeasures were pointed out from different perspective such as economy,law, technical and management system.