The Prediction Of Construction Land And Cultivated Land Area In GPLU

With the great change of social and economic situation, the start -pointand target of designing General Planning of Land Utilization (GPLU) should be raised to the top of social and economic development. It is necessary to combine the forecast of socio-economic development with disposition of land resources to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and society. Therefore, the forecast of society and economy should be embodied in GPLU.Taking Chongming as example, the main way of thought of the thesis is as follows: according to the focal point of the development of society and economy in Chongming city, the prediction is focused in 2 fields respectively: construction land and cultivated land area.The thesis includes three parts.In part one, the related theory of GPLU and method of prediciont is discussed. The method of grey system theoiy is chosen as chiefly predictive method in this thesis. On the base of the characteristics and applicative conditions of the method of grey system theory discussed, we think that the GPLU, to great extent, is one kind of grey course which information is incompletely. Therefore, the method of grey system theory can be used to predicate the quantity of land use.In part two, the prediction of the quantity of construction land and the quantity of cultivated land area in GPLU is elucidated. The contents of prediction include two aspects:The prediction of society and economic development: firstly, the population of Chongming is predicated by the method of grey system theory, and a model which is used to predict the quantity of construction land in Chongming in future is constructed according to correlation between GDP per person and the construction land per person. Then, the key factor to the prediction of construction land is analyzed, and the reqirement of the economic development and population growth rate are put forward. Therefore, the prediction of the quantity of construction land is assured.The prediction of sustainable development of cultivated land area: firstly, answer the question why the cultivated land area changes, secondly answer the question how the cultivated land area changes, finally use the model (about the industry production value and people working in the countryside) to predict the need of cultivated landarea by the method of grey system theory, and meanwhile the requirement to assure the quantity of cultivated land area is put forward, too.In the final part, the conclusion is made. Also the suggesion about land use is put forward.