Research On Prediction And Protection Of Cultivated Land Change In Anhui Province

This article is mainly take 2006 government work report as a background, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out explicitly in the report: must keep the cultivated land not less than 18 million acres of the red line. Under this big premise, NanJing Bureau of state land supervision requested group to carried out this study. Combined the domestic and foreign research development, this article is to study change prediction and protection study of the Anhui Province cultivated land resources as the starting point, mainly has conducted the analytical study from two aspects:On the one hand, change prediction study to cultivated land resources of Anhui Province . Firstly, analyzes the current situation of land use of Anhui Province, and to the land use dynamic changes of Anhui Province, on this basis, from which the development potential of reserved land resources, land reclamation potential, the potential of land consolidation and land productivity of the four aspects are analyzed about the potential of land utilization of Anhui Province. Secondly, analyzes the relationship between Anhui Province economic growth, urbanization, population growth , ecological construction, coal mining and the cultivated land resource changes,and the critical point of Anhui Province of farmland used for construction. Then mainly use four methods to forecast cultivated land area of anhui province:1.according to Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2005, select population quantity, GDP, total investment in fixed assets, the first industrial output value, the second industry, the third industry output, urbanization rate, grain yield cultivated land area of eight factors and cultivated land area to establish regression model and predict 2006-2020 cultivated land;2.According to " the current land use and potential analysis of Anhui Province " and" the report of evaluation of implementation of general land use planning of Anhui Province " results, and joined analysis of the overall planning about huainan panxie mining , huainan xinji mining and huaibei mining to study insurance quantity of the cultivated land;3. first of all, to predict the population, according to the academician of china of Engineering, Lu Liang-shu put forward well-off society of food safety development target system in " building a road of characteristics food and nutrition development the chinese way", initially identified the total demand for food of Anhui Province in 2010 and 2020, and converted the total demand for grain into rice production, Then according to the preliminary results of production accounting of farmland , using the cultivated land production yields of that, calculated the demand of theory ,can be realized and actual cultivated land in 2010 and 2020;4 and the total amount of cultivated land in accordance with the "dynamic balance", anhui cultivated land resource supply amount of Anhui Province should be kept the level of the year of 2005, a "a" principle, to ensure that the total amount of cultivated land, that the implementation of "total compensation", to ensure that the same total arable land. Finally, determined the cultivated land protection goal which is 5.69×106hm~2.On the other hand, the study to protection of arable land resources of anhui province. First of all, on the basis of analyzing the existing problems and performance of the cultivated land protection at present of Anhui province, divided the whole Anhui Province into five areas, including Huaibei Plain area , Jianghuai hilly area, plain area along the Yangtze River , West Anhui mountainous area and South Anhui mountainous areas, separately from the district land use policy, development model, development goals were analyzed. Secondly, to the principle of local conditions in each area, each region will be divided into agriculture, forestry, urban and industrial and mining towns, scenic spots and nature reserves, flood storage, separately proposed land use requirements and land use control, while also analyzed in each region which areas to focus on land development and consolidation. Finally, combined situation of Anhui Province, proposed policy recommendations and counter-measures for implementation of the cultivated land protection of Anhui Province in many respects.