A Study On Land Use/Cover Change And Driving Forces On County Scale

Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is the hot point and front zone of the global variety study,and the driving forces is the emphasis of this study. Study spatio-temporal variety of LUCC and it'sdriving forces, can not only availably recover the inside mechanism of the system which mankindand earth interacts in, but also predict its trendency in future, thus, adopt a homologous counterplan, made use of land resources reasonablely, protect ecosystem environment and promote thesustainable development of societyThe LUCC research of sanjiang welty plain in Heilongjiang province currently hadn't gonedeep into launch o This study took Hulin County as a typical werea, with TM remote sensing imagesof Land-sat satelite in 1993 and 2003 year, with the support of GIS and remote sensingtechnology, adopt land use dynamic degree, land use comprehensive degree, landscape indexesto realize the spatio-temporal regulation of LUCC in Hulin County, In the meantime to carry onactual inquisition and keep the economical condition in mind. select counter economical statisticsindexes, adopt main composition and grey connection method to carry on quantitative analysis tofind out the driving factors in Hulin County's land exploitation, By GM(1, 1)grey model and BPnerve network(ANN) model, to predict the future tendency of land use variety in Huin County, thiscan help to strengthen the land use management and had great significance to realize the aim tokeep land use forever.Through analysis of the variety of the land use data of Hulin County from 1993 to 2003 years,the result indicates that the variety is obvious.1993-2003 years, basic structure of Hulin County's land use was not changed, still with arableland, woodland,unused land. were the dominant typeso Every type of land use had the variety ofdifferent range on the amount, among them, werea of water, arableland, residential and mineralland increased, woodland, grassland, unused land decrease, residential and mineral land had thebiggst change in range, but the arableland because of it's huge cardinal number had a biggestchange in amount, from the variety speed, residential and mineral land had the biggest change inspeed, the variety speed of evry type of land use directly reflected the economic level of HulinCountyoThrough the analysis of the landscape of Hulin County, the spot number of the arable land.woodland increased, the spot average werea reduced and broken up degree and separation degree increased. The spot number of the water werea, grassland increased, the spot average wereaincreasedd, broken up degree and separation degree index number increaseds respectively,residential and mineral spot number increased, spot average werea increased, broken up degree andseparation degree index number increased respectively, the space that is from the whole structureand form the variety up presents more scatter charactefistico unused spot number reduced, the spotaverage werea reduced, broken up degree increased, separate degree reduced, the space that isfrom the whole structure and form the variety up presents more concentrated characteristic.Through the land use driving model, the land use driving fators were analyzed qualitativelyand quantitatively, the result reveal that the factors of population and economic policy were themain driving forces that induce the land use change in Hulin County~ Hulin County now had anaccelerative development, the county evolve fastly, and the development of the county's economymade the land use structure vary correspondlyo with the people's living level increased, theconsume requiremen. The food structure had ajusted from plant food to the animality food, andthe requirement of green product increased notablely, plant of arable land structure also changedeand the dry land converted to the paddy field and the grain crop converted to the cash crop. thePlant and stock raising, the growth of population, make arableland, constuction land increasedcorrespondly.From RAGA-GM(1, 1), BP nerve network(ANN) model, the result revealed that HulinCounty's arableland, residential and mineral land increased ulteriorly, and water, woodland,grassland unusedland decrease ulteriorly in future, the structure of land use more and more underthe influence of artificial interference activity, so someting must be dong to strengthen themanagement of land use planning ,and raise the level of land consolidation, reasonably extendcounty scale, limit the growth of constructive land, t implement the policy of return arable land tograssland, protect ecotypic marsh.