Regional Population Growth And Land Resource Security Study

Regional population growth and land resource security study are the main contents of regional socio-economic development. Human beings are both producer and consumer. Superfluous population makes negative effect on regional socio-economy, culture and environment. under population pressure and unreasonable economic action, the eco-environment of the karst mountain area has been increasingly degraded . Moreover the regional difference of population distribution and land resource causes the differences of per capita income and satisfaction to society. So population growth and land resource security become extremely important for Guizhou where the environment is fragile, the economy and culture are block, the agricultural population and the ethnic groups are multitudinous, soil and water loss and rocky desertification are serious and which locates at the environmental barrier of Zhujiang and Yangtse river.Based on population data from 1949 to 2004, the paper discussed the characteristic of population nature growth and it's background of economy, social, culture and environment. According to population growth tendency, the paper predicts the population growth in Guizhou adopting the curve predict model of Logistic and Grey predict model. The paper also analyzed yield of grain fluctuation and periodicity since founding of the nation, and estimates the land resource carrying capacity according to potential yield of grain and per capita annual consumption of grain in the future, based on these calculations, the land resources security situation of Guizhou in the future were studied. At last, the countermeasures and suggestion are proposed so as to ensure land resource security. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis.The proportion and population growth of the agricultural population and the ethnic groups in Guizhou occupied the dominant position. In 2004, the women's total birthrate is 1.87 which lower than replacement level(2.1). In order to disperser baby boom and weaken the population reproduction the effect of inertia, understanding fully the inertia effect of population growth and adjusting the woman's birthrate are necessary. Based on these methods ,it is probability to enter"the low birth rate, the low mortality rate, the low natural rate of growth"called the modern population reproduction type in 2030.Under population distribution , population characters ,land resource and socio-economic action, land resource security question differentiated among regions, what's more, various methods are selected correspondingly.The following basic conditions should be take into consideration that per capita occupancy volume of grain in the future is higher slightly than present level .Base on safeguarding total dynamic balance of cultivated land, innovates the middle or low yield farmland land 32,000 hectares per year .in 2030, per capita occupancy volume of grain can reach 340kg in Guizhou, which lower than that of the life of the well-to-do society. Meanwhile, the eco-environment protection, high material investment, science and technology level of development and population growth control are necessary.The process of urbanization in Guizhou is under the circumstance of long-term occupying land resource especially cultivation land resource when it is economical junior accumulation stage .The speed of land's non-agriculturalization is faster than that of population .So the land arrangements will be still the key work in the future.