Research On Construction Of The System Dynamics Model For The Oil's Exploration And Exploitation Of Shengli Oil Field And Strategies

This paper analyzes the whole process of petroleum exploration andexploitation and its related environment detailedly, scientifically,systematically and dynamically from systematic view. In the same time, itestablishes the internal information feed-back structure and mechanism,and cause-and-effect relations in exploring and exploiting the oilresources. Further, it draws the stock and flow diagram of systemdynamics applying the theory and method of system dynamics. Based onthe latest data of Shengli oil field, it established an interactive computerbasedeconomics model in order to analyze and study qualitatively andquantificationally in a long-term, dynamic and strategical fashion. Byverifying model and comparing with the real data, the result of this modelis similar with real data. What is more, we make sensitivity analysis forthe model. Finally, this thesis simulates and predicts the situation ofexploration and exploitation of Shengli oil field in ten years, suggestingthat this oil field should enhance recovery ratio , keep steady increase oftotal investment and cut down cost that are necessary for the healthydevelopment of oil field. In short, this model supplies scientificfoundation for policy decision department.