Research On Input And Output Laws Of ST Oilfield Exploration And Exploitation

The passage takes the use of the analysis of system dynamics to discuss the input and output laws and relationships of the process of oil exploration and exploitation. First, the passage introduces the system dynamics model based on quantitative analysis, and explain its problem-solving process is essentially the process of finding the optimal solution, the model is a simulation process of structure and function. Through dynamic analysis of the whole process of petroleum exploration and exploitation, the paper selects the representation of indicators of input and output process, using the software Vensim to draw a causal relationship with the circuit diagram and system flow chart to identify the mutual influence of the uncertain factors and input-output indicators as well as the positive and negative causal feedback loop. After that, we obtain nearly a decade of data through the research on oil fieldsa nd expert advice, by the pretreatment and related adjustment of data, the system runs the simulation results of input and output variables. In Excel software, we calculate the obtained results’ relative error and map out the scatter plot and line charts, it can be more intuitive to see a good model simulation, and the error also fluctuates within an allowable range, so that the system dynamics model can be a better description of the input-output system. Select oil prices, recovery, and every ten thousand tons of proven oil reserves need to direct investment three uncertain factors to conduct the sensitivity analysis, we can analyze the different sensitivity of different variables on the input and output index. According to the results, we can summarize laws and conclusions of the input and output: the increase in total investment, the improvement of recovery and the reduce of tons of proven oil reserves every need direct investment, as well as the cost reduction etc. all can improve the profit to the maximum extent, and ensure a reasonable proportion of input and output to achieve corporate strategic goals. According to the rules and relationships, the paper further proposed the related countermeasures to improve the efficiency of oil exploration and exploitation. From the exploration and exploitation efforts, financial and technical support, management and overseas market expansion four aspects to propose effective recommendations, and provide a theoretical guidance to oil exploration and exploitation work so that the enterprises can use it legitimately and scientifically in the actual operation, and ensure the steady development of oilfields’ input and output.