Research Of Investment Risk Early-warning System Of Infrastructure Project

With the deepening of our reform-and-opening policy and the establishing of market system, the risk of infrastructure investment project is becoming larger and larger, and so there are some problems in the process of investment, such as the lose control of investment. In order to resolve these problems, the owner must adopt the precontrol measures to control investment risk, that is, the owner must control it before the event, instead of after it. So we must predict the investment risk of infrastructure project. In view of this problem, the investment risk early-warning management of infrastructure project is presented.This paper researches into the risk hierarchy combination model of investment risk analysis of infrastructure project, and establishes the fuzzy overall evaluation investment risk model of infrastructure project applying fuzzy evaluation theory, and then designs the risk monitoring early-warning index. Applying the theory of earned value management, the dynamic investment risk analysis model of infrastructure project is established, and the risk thresholds of the risk early-warning are discussed. Applying the theory of grey system and the one of neural network, the grey prediction model and the neural network prediction model of investment risk analysis of infrastructure project are constructed. In the end, the investment risk early-warning system of infrastructure project is discussed. It can early warn us about the investment risk of infrastructure project.