The Impact Of Fluctuation Of The Global Crude Oil Price On China's Industrial Products Export

With the development of China's foreign trade, especially in the industrial products trade, it already plays a very important role in our national foreign trade system and national economic development. In resent years, the International crude oil prices are very unstable. The production and export of industrial product need to cost a lot of crude oil, and the large amount of the cost is rely on import from abroad. So a stable supply price of crude oil directly affects our national economic development and industrial products trade.This paper begins at the present fluctuation of international oil price and China's industrial export, it analyses the circumstance and trend of the fluctuating Crude oil price and its reason in recent years. We also have a detail description of the present China's industrial export and export commodity structure. In this study, I creatively use Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co-integrated relationships between the fluctuating oil price and the growth rate of export of china's industrial products, and then test the Granger causality relationships between the two elements. The result of our econometric analysis indicates that the rising of international oil price slow down China's growth rate of export of industrial products. But the growing of China's Export of Industrial Products is not the cause of the rising of international crude oil price. In the conclusive part of this paper, some constructive suggestions are given in order to further promote our national industrial product export, such as accelerate the innovation of new technology and comprehensively strengthen the international competition abilities of our national industry, create a good foreign trade environment, improve the industrial structures, and so on. I hope it can bring some helps or instructions to our national industrial products export.