The Empirical Study On Real Estate Bubble In China

The real estate industry is a basic and dominant industry in china, whether it is running healthy will have influence on not only itself continual development, but also the quality of overall economic and finance security, society stabilization of the country. With the deepening of the reform of housing system and the accelerating of urbanization process, the industry of real estate in China has been developing rapidly in recent years, and real estate market appears flourishing in supply and demand. However all the people focus on the problem about whether the price of real estate is rational and economic bubble exists in the market or not. And the reason for the change is that the percentage of real estate investment and the loan in the industry of real estate increase quickly, furthermore the prices of the houses rise widely and rapidly in more and more big cities in China.Based on the domestic and overseas scholars' research of real estate bubble, using the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis methods, the dissertation firstly gives the definition of real estate bubble, analyses the kinds, mechanism of shaping and the causes of real estate bubble. Secondly, the author introduces some main methods of testing real estate bubble and analyses their applicability in China. At the same time, it also points out that indicators assessment approach is the most appropriate method for testing real estate bubble in China recently. Then on the basis of indicators assessment approach, the dissertation measures the existence of real estate bubble in real estate market of China, and draws the basic conclusion that our real estate market as a whole does not have the universal high bubble. Taking this into consideration, the dissertation brings up the reasons of the overheated real estate market and by composing an index of real estate bubble to establish a model for estimating the real estate bubble in the regions of China—take Shanghai as an example. The findings of empirical study make out that real estate bubble in Shanghai has been increasing step by step during the observation period, the dissertation also gives some forecasts. Finally, in view of the causes of real estate bubble in some regions, the dissertation puts forward some countermeasures to prevent and cure real estate bubble in our country. We should strengthen the macroscopic control of the land, set up multilayer housing safeguard system, advocate the consumers' rational consumption, widen the financing ways of real estate corporations, strengthen the leverage of economy instruments, restrict foreign capital entering our real estate market to gain benefits severely and improve the executive power of the control policies.