Research On The Risk In Local Government Debts And Its Early-Warning

Along with the strengthening of the China's economic system reform, some deep-rooted contradictions and problems in economic field have become more and more obvious, the local government debts problem particularly conspicuous and has already caused the extensive concerns of the various circles of society, especially economic circles. This paper has carried on research to the local government debts problem by using quantitative and qualitative analysis and combination of standardized and Empirical Analysis. The full paper is divided into six chapters altogether. Firstly, the paper mainly explains the research background, research range and domestic and international situation about the government debts problem at present in the introduction of chapter. And then, The second chapter systematically summarized and reviewed the development of domestic and foreign theory government debts risk on different period. In chapter three, basing on the qualitative analysis on the categories of the local government debts, it carries on research to quantitative analysis on the state of the local government debts at present, and concludes the characteristics and influence of local government debts. In chapter four, This paper considers that the main factors leading to form the risk in local government debts are these aspects: macroeconomic cycle fluctuations, the deficiency of the market-oriented reform, economic system transformation, the imperfect of financial system, unsound system of debt management and nonstandard government acts, which provider the theoretical basis on the root cause of local government debts. On the basis of the analysis of the ahead three chapters, starting from perspective of continuable development on the government debts, this paper concludes the conditions on how to achieve the continuable development on the government debts through the construction of government revenue and expenditure flows mainly to the debt continuable variable dynamic model in chapter five, and from the analysis of the crisis on local government debts, this chapter designs the evaluation criteria of the risk in local government debts and the index of Early-Warning system, and analyzes the demonstration by using the index and model of Early-Warning to determine the assessment level of the risk in local government debts. Finally, this paper suggests the relevant policy recommendations on how to guard against the risk in local government debts in chapter six. The government should quicken the reform of the economic system and deepen the reform of the fiscal system, furthermore, strengthening the management of the local government debt and regulating the behavior of local government are also important.