A Study Of The Fluctuation Of China's Import Of Wine And The Development Of Chinese Wine Industry

After China's Reform and Opening to the outside, China's import of wine is growing and expanding. The development also has great fluctuation, which could be divided as the fast growing period of 1994-1997; the slowing down stage of 1998-2001 and the renaissance since China's entry into WTO till now.Chinese average consumption of wine is only 1/20 of the World's, but the consumption demand is growing fast and the potential import demand causes more trade of wine and foreign investments. After China's entry into WTO, China's wine market becomes more open to outside through the way of reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers. Chinese wine industry is in inferior position and facing fiercer International competition. The harmonious development of import and domestic industry is a very important issue in the economic growth and there is great necessity of studying the reason of the flotation and its influence to Chinese wine industry.This thesis illustrates the development of International trade of wine, and mainly explores the reason of the fluctuation and its influence to Chinese wine industry, adopting specs analysis, empirical analysis and comparing analysis. It also raises some suggestion with the reference of the results of the research and the successful experience of Chinese counter partners. In the empirical study part, it adopts CMS Model and OLS to explore the reasons for the fluctuation. It also use ADF and Granger to estimate the influence of Chinese wine import to domestic wine industry and its domestic and international competitiveness.The conclusions of this paper are as follows, Domestic demand is the main factor in influencing China's import of wine; the structure of the imported product and the domestic market is the main cause of the decline of trade; world's biggest wine producers mainly use competitive price to expand their share in Chinese market; the growth of Chinese domestic demand of wine enhance the import of foreign wine and the development of Chinese wine industry as well as promote the import to certain extend; the growth of import impacts the domestic industry and weakens its domestic competitiveness; the inferior situation of domestic wine industry also accelerates the import.Based on the conclusion, the thesis offers relative policy suggestion to Chinese Legal and Regulation, Industry Organization, Industry Structure, Production Technology, Marketing, Product Difference, Quality and Price, with the expectation of promoting the harmonious development between the import of wine and domestic wine industry.