Research On The Financial Forewarning System Of Nanjing Water Transport Industry Co., Ltd.

On the one hand, the market economy with keen competition has offered the wide management stage for enterprise, on the other hand, the levity inside and outside environment may transform the financial risk into the financial distress and lead to a failure in financial affairs. The financial failure of most enterprises is the result of accumulation of financial risk. The operators can take measures to improve management to avoid financial failures during the germination of financial distress by finding the problems of enterprises' management in time, being conscious of the signals indicating the financial distress ,enhancing the anti-interference ability and resisting-risk ability and capabilities of analyzing ,controlling and keeping away from the risk in advance. Nanjing Water Transport Industry Co., Ltd. (NWTI) is one of the leading petroleum transportation corporations and is developing rapidly. But as a capital-intensive shipping corporation, it is very important to supervise its financial affairs to retain this developing tendency. Therefore, combining a concrete enterprise, it is not theoretically valuable but also instructionally significant to study the establishment of the financial forewarning system of NWTI.This paper begins with the retrospection of internal and overseas financial forewarning developing evolution and study status in quo, analyses the existing problems on the study at present and defines some correlative concepts about the financial risk and forewarning. Then it brings forward the necessity of establishing NWTI.'s financial forewarning system. On the basic of these, this paper definitudes the function of NWTI's financial forewarning system according to the aims and principles of establishing financial forewarning system. And then using for reference the common financial indexes, it establishes the standby indexes from five aspects in conformity to the principles of establishing NWTI's financial forewarning index system. At the same time, considering the veracity and applicability of forewarning model, this thesis designs the forewarning index system adapting to NWTI on the basic of a great deal of NWTI's financial information and filtration of standby index using the relativity. Then it applies the improved Efficacy Coefficient Method, Fuzzy AHP and questionnaire to primitively establish the financial forewarning model of NWTI. Subsequently, with a view to combine the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, it introduces some qualitative indexes to revise the primitive model. Afterward, it evaluates the financial status of NWTI using the modified model and analyses the forewarning results. Finally, combining the forecasting results, this paper puts forward some measures fit for NWTI to guard against the financial risk with a expectation to provide some scientific proofs for financial management of NWTI.