Construction Of Risk Forewarning Index System On Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise

In recent years,with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous advancement of economic and social transformation,the social environment is becoming more and more active,while the political and economic culture and other unstable factors are increasing.In the process of participating in economic activities,enterprises have gained some valuable development opportunities and gained more space for development.On the other hand,the types of risks and the nature of risks of these enterprises have also undergone great changes,and the accumulation of potential risks leads to frequent corporate risk events.Therefore,the research field of risk management is attracting more and more attention.Risk forewarning is an important part of risk management.The enterprise risk forewarning index system will send out warning signals to the enterprise managers when it is necessary for managers to take the risks into consideration to help them to take effective risk management reaction.These reactions improve the level of risk control and guarantee the sustainable future development of the company.The purpose of enterprise risk forewarning is to prevent risk and correct deviation,and the risk warning is a dynamic process that covers many aspects of enterprise operation and management.In the risk forewarning system,the risk forewarning index system is an important part,which bears the important functions of risk identification and risk assessment.The internal control system is only an integral part of the overall risk management system.Although it also reflect risk-oriented internal control system,and also has the risk assessment process,but the core content of "internal control manual"is the process of design and optimization of internal control processes and just list the result of the inherent risk identification,lacking the dynamic changing reactions according to the company situation of risk assessment,report and response system,so the construction of risk forewarning system becomes more and more important.Therefore,we take the construction of risk early warning index system as the research object.Agriculture belongs to the first industry and faces risks arising from natural disasters and product quality control.Agricultural business is an important business of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise,so agricultural risk affects its daily operation,so we need to take the agricultural risk into consideration.In addition,Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise,like other enterprises,faces the strategy risk,market risk,financial risk,and so on.All this risks have showed the urgency of constructing risk forewarning index system.In terms of the company situation,the company's operating,financing and management activities need timely,dynamically variation according to the situation assessment,communication,report and response to risk,making the comprehensive risk management system better adapt to group organization system and finally build a comprehensive risk management organization,report and control system.With the change of economic situation at home and abroad,the operation and management risk of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise itself is also increasing,and there have been significant risk events appearing in Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise.Therefore,the establishment and improvement of risk management system is also the group's own sustainable development needs.In terms of the early work,Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise established risk management organization mechanism and the intelligent financial decision-making support system,which have laid a solid foundation for the construction of risk control system.A good risk management and control system should establish a reasonable risk forewarning system,and carry out real-time forewarning and dynamic response to risks,so as to play a supplementary role in enterprise risk control activities.Risk forewarning index system is an important means to evaluate the severity of risk,which determines whether the enterprise risk forewarning results can reach the preset goals.Therefore,index system construction is the most important task of risk forewarning system construction.Combining case analysis and theoretical analysis method,this paper adopts the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),so that the research results have certain scientific nature and applicability.This paper firstly reviews the research history and current situation of risk forewarning indicators at home and abroad,and elaborates the development process of risk management and risk forewarning theory.On the basis of analyzing the specific risks of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise,this paper puts forward the design idea of the forewarning index system,and introduces the specific index system design scheme.This paper consists of six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction part,which explains the research background,research significance,research methods,research content,research progress and current situation at home and abroad.The second chapter describes the development process of risk management at home and abroad,and introduces the risk forewarning theory,early warning logic thought and method.The third chapter,the fourth chapter,the fifth chapter is the case part,the third chapter detailed describes the present situation of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise,organizational structure and implementing enterprise risk management of the preparation,the fourth chapter analyzes the risk characteristics of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise and seven sources of risk for the construction of risk forewarning index system,which have laid a solid foundation for the construction of risk forewarning index system.Fifth chapter presents the index system design principles,design methods and the detailed plan on the specific design of index system,mainly includes three parts of the forewarning alert degree of the index design,distribution of index weight and evaluating respective risks.The sixth chapter is the conclusion,in the summary of the full text,proposed the innovation and shortcomings.Although there have been many achievements in the field of enterprise risk early warning,few scholars have combined the design of risk forewarning index with the specific situation of group enterprises.Considering the compulsory requirements of relevant laws and regulations as well as their own business management requirements,to conduct the thorough research to the risk forewarning index system of Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise has shown strong urgency and necessity.This paper takes Jiangsu Agricultural Enterprise as an example to carry out the research on the design of forewarning index system,which is an effective supplement to the research on the forewarning index system of the group enterprise.