Research On Corporate Production Risk Early-warning Management

For human society, no matter how many times scientific-technological revolutions have been experienced, production always performs one of the most important means to gain material wealth, so human's attention to production hasn't been weakened by scientific-technological revolutions. Production management still plays an extremely important role in modern enterprise management. Furthermore, it is a significant method for manufacturing enterprises to acquire the competence. However, in the process of production management, enterprises are faced with a great deal of risks, which haven't been eliminated through scientific-technological revolutions, however, more complex situations happen in their evolutions. All these risks threaten the enterprise production directly, accompanied with a low competent in the market. Therefore, the modern enterprise must examine enterprise production system carefully, and do well in production risk management. But, only little attention has been paid to the production risk management these days in enterprises, in addition, no considering has been put on production risk management as an integrated subject, and no effective resolution has been made to solve the problem of production risk management system. For most enterprises, production risk management is just a kind of after-management on partial risks, while more risk aversion and risk control should be taken. Consequently, the theoretical and empirical study of production risk forewarning management has become a critical and urgent issue for enterprise development.Based on the theories of production management, risk management and economic early-warning, by means of structural equation modeling, optimal design of test, fuzzy mathematics, cybernetics, computer technology synthetically, immunization theory and safety management, this thesis focuses on production risks, and studies completely and systemically on the production risk early-warning management in the clue of risk early-warning theories.This thesis is composed of five sections:Section one mainly discusses on the necessity and the importance to study production risk early-warning management. Meanwhile, literature review is stated to show the states quo of production risk early-warning management at home and abroad.Section two induces the concept, characteristic, classification, causes of production risks and the concept and thought of production risk forewarning management. Afterwards, three principles of production risks are put forward, which include risk coherence principle, risk sign principle and risk immune principles, aiming at offering some useful reference for systematic analysis and the establishment methods of production risk fore-warning management.Section three proposes production risk early-warning diamond model on the basis of the three principles, examines the quantitative methodologies of diamond model, introduces a structural equation modeling for production risk fore-warning management, and optimal design of test is employed to choose the optimized scheme.Section four carries out an empirical analysis on the production risk fore-warning management in a chemical enterprise, through which, the theories and methodologies proposed in this thesis are verified. Finally, schemes of production risk fore-warning management are discussed with the results from empirical analysis.