| With economic globalization trend, China's Agricultural products trade is impacted by the whole world's volatility more and more directly. Furthermore, rapid change of internal economic environment increases the Unpredictability of Chinese agricultural trade's future. In this article, we explore the major influencing factors and analyze the opportunities and challenges that Chinese agricultural trade meets, through calculating its price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand.Thanks to adequate historical data, 1985 to 2006, we calculated Chinese agricultural trade's price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand from several levels. First of all, I got the whole Chinese agricultural trade's price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand by regression analysis. From the conclusion, we found that whole Chinese agricultural trade excess of income elasticity of demand and short of price elasticity of demand. It means that whole Chinese agricultural import characterized by huge market capacity and attractive interests. However, Chinese agricultural export impacted by serious trade policies and trade barriers, rather than any other economic variables. So the elasticity of demand has no means to the whole Chinese agricultural export. Secondary, I calculated some important Chinese agricultural product's demand elasticity, such as food, vegetable oil, livestock product and fruit. From the result, we find the huge market capacity of agricultural import again. Furthermore, some kind of agricultural products have negative impact of "large nation effect". In the respect of export, we can see that fruit market have a nice potential market with high investment return. Fruit should be the focus of later export encourage policy's object. At the end of my article, I make some suggestion to promote the balance of Chinese agricultural trade and improve the agricultural structure according to their own features and actual situation. |
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