Research On Forecasting Method For Requirements Of Key Position Talents At Baodian Coal Mine

This thesis is a systematic research that is carried on the forecasting method concerning the requirements of key position talents at a given coal producingenterprise—Baodian Coal Mine of Yankuang Group. Its main contents studiedinclude four respects as follows.(1)Definition of the object studiedAccording to the current demanding situations of employees engaging in coal production, this thesis gives the definition of key position talents and points out its connotations in coal producing enterprises. Combined with the characteristics of Baodian Coal Mine, the thesis carries out investigations and discerning analysis on key departments and key positions within it using forms of questionnaires, informal discussions and interviews and then defines the contents of key position talents from the angle of position.(2)Research on influencing factors of key position talentsAccording to the analysis of external and internal environment of human resources this research has given qualitative analysis and selections to the critical influencing factors on demands for talents of key positions. Based on the characteristics of these factors, representative and quantitative indexes that affect demands for key position talents at Baodian Coal Mine are found. With the help of historical data and dealing with eighteen relevant factors that are chosen with statistical method, the thesis proves that it is the annual production of raw coal that influences the demands for key position talents most at Baodian Coal Mine and it also offers basic arguments for analysis of influencing factors on demands for key position talents to coal producing enterprises with similar characteristics in our country.(3)Setting-up of the model for forecasting key position talents requirementAccording to analytical results of statistics and characteristics of data occupied, the thesis sets Time and Annual Production of Raw Coal as two variables to be used in Regressive Model and Grey Systematic Model GM (1, 1) to predict the requirements of key position talents. Finally, predicted values of demands for key position talents within the Eleventh Five Year of Baodian Coal Mine are gained through the method of combinatorial forecasting.(4)Planning and measures for the management of key position talentsOn the basis of results forecasted and combined with the current situations of human resources management at Baodian Coal Mine, this thesis brings forward plans and measures for the management of key position talents with the expectation of offering references for it and guarantying the storage of key position talents required in future at Baodian Coal Mine.