A Study On The Growth And The Evolvement Trend Of The Inner Structure Of Passenger Transport Industry In China

Passenger transport industry is one of the important basic industries in the national economy in China, and has been developing quickly in the past decades. But there are still some problems, such as deficient supply, contradiction of the inner structure, that restrict the efficiency of industry. In this paper, the author tries to analyses the relationship between passenger transport industry and the national economy, the evolvement trend of the inner structure of the industry and the forecast of passenger traffic. Also, grey system theory is chosen as the main method of the research in this paper, the content and the results of this paper can be concluded as five parts as follows:First, the background and significance of this issue is pointed out, also, the research progress at home and abroad is analyzed, and then, the growth of passenger transport industry and the grey theory is introduced.Second, the bidirectional relationship between passenger transport industry and the national economy is analyzed detailedly. Firstly, the influencing factors of the passenger transport industry are classified and analyzed qualitatively. And then, the relationship between the railway, highway passenger transport industry and seven economic influencing factors such as population, GDP and household consumption are analyzed and compared respectively based on the grey relation theory.Third, this chapter focuses on the inner structure of passenger transport industry. On the basis of introducing the status quo, the evolvement trends of the inner structure of passenger transport industry are analyzed quantitatively according to the grey relation theory and SPSS regression analysis respectively. The main conclusion shows that highway passenger transport is replacing railway passenger transport, and also, the driving force of highway passenger transport to passenger transport industry is increasing by degrees.Fourth, the forecast models of passenger transport industry in China are developed based on grey model. The GM (1,1) models of the passenger quantity and passenger turnover quantity are established and verified respectively, and then, passenger quantity and passenger turnover quantity of highway and railway in 2006-2010 are calculated respectively.Fifth, this paper focuses on the research summary. And then, the policy proposals for the development of passenger transport industry are pointed out finally.