Research On Prediction Of Rural Passenger Of Chongqing

In recent years, Chongqing entered a rapid economic development and implementation of the "314" overall deployment of the critical period, Chongqing launched a comprehensive range of urban and rural development, and focused on building "five Chongqing," the climax, which gives road transport industry, particularly in rural passenger transport industry has brought an unprecedented opportunity. With the deepening of rural road construction and upgrading of the rural masses travel more convenient, efforts to solve this problem people travel, making rural roads in the transport sector reflect its functions and play its due role in understanding the future development trend of rural passenger transport, the full realization of Chongqing, "314" overall plan, urban and rural development plays a vital role.Firstly, this paper investigated the present situation of rural passenger, explored the rural passenger existing problems, found out the characteristics of the rural passenger and analyzes some common rural passenger forecasting model, and excavated its inferiority, then summarized the influence factors of rural passenger, and the influence factors of correlation degree analysis, the selection of have the biggest impact on GDP, agricultural population quantity, combining grey forecast last in chongqing highway passenger quantity in the next five years on the rural highway passenger transport GM (1,3), and gray prediction error and precision inspection. Secondly, this paper mode of rural resident travel analysis, summarized the characteristics of rural dweller of traffic mode, compared the rural residents, affecting the micro and macro factors travel, using MNL disaggregate model of rural residents predicting traffic mode. To travel through the forecast, grasp their way, and to explore the basic rules and characteristics of rural population, master the rural population travel rules for travel tools for rural preference based on passenger rail capacity configuration. Finally, this paper the lines of rural highways grading, find out the simple line the influence factors of capacity configuration, puts forward the calculation formula, with auges car with subplots car strategy, creative puts forward how to areas with capacity configuration.This paper focused on the influence factors of rural passenger on the grey relation analysis, forecasted the future years of chongqing, then forecasted analysis of rural residents the choice of transportation, put forward the way of capacity configuration of rural passenger line capacity, to guide the development of the passenger has certain application value.