The Empirical Research On The Influence Of International Trade Caused By The Exchange Rate Fluctuation

According to the traditional economic theory, the fluctuations of the exchange rate can affect both the balance of trade and the foreign trade of a country. According to the classical international trade theory, the devaluation of the exchange rate can enhance the competitiveness of a country's products, thus improve the balance of trade by increasing exports and inhibiting imports. This paper will analyze the impact of the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate on China's foreign trade and bring forward some measures to deal with the impact.In the process of theoretical analysis, this paper analysis all the models existing on the basis of the flexible theory and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of these models. In this paper a new model is built based on the existing model, which is more in accordance with the theoretical assumptions by adjusting the variables. The significant results are worked out by analyzing the latest data of our country's foreign trade flows with the scientific stationary analysis and co integration analysis in the empirical process.By summarizing the previous research, studying the experience of the "plaza agreement" and analyzing the empirical results in the paper, following conclusions are gained. First, the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate affects the foreign trade in a limited range for the special structure of import and export commodities and macroeconomic environment of our country. Second, the RMB's revaluation in small range will not affect our country's import and export trade obviously, while the revaluation is supported by the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves under China's current macroeconomic environment and the double surplus. Third, because of the appreciation of RMB, only adjust our foreign trade strategy and optimizing the industrial structure of China can truly realize the sustainable development of China's foreign trade.The RMB's revaluation will exist in a long time according to the current international situation. At the end of this paper, some policy recommendations are given to evade the disadvantages caused by the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate.