Options-Based Analysis Of Investment Decision Making In Oil And Gas Field

Based on global options theories,a set of Real Options Approaches (ROA) has been proposed to life cycle of Oil and Gas Field Projects (OGFP) in this dissertation.It first of all is theory analysis. This dissertation discusses options theories,and gives out the basic methods of ROA and the main parameters of options pricing. It also analyses and compares ROA together with traditional economic evaluation means,and shows the research and application of ROA in petroleum exploration and development,and explains the applicable conditions of ROA and existing problems in ROA..Secondly,models are formed. A new concept of OGFP is defined in detail,and its main contents include Petroleum Exploration Project (PEP),Petroleum Development Project (PDP),Petroleum Reconstruction Project (PRP),Petroleum Abandonment Project (PAP). In the binomial model of options pricing constructing for PEP,this dissertation illustrates the delay options,the growth options,the abandon options,and compares them with Financial Net Present Value. In addition, it emphasizes construction of the options worth models with a partial differential equation,and derives the fundamental models of options pricing. In the options worth model of PDP formed,an effect on PDP investment decision-making due to break-even oil price and optimal oil price is investigated in this dissertation. Constructing the options worth model of PRP ,this dissertation studies an effect on PRP investment decision-making due to break-even oil price and optimal oil price. In the options worth model of PAP established,an optimal critical oil price for investment and an optimal critical oil price for abandonment are derived out. This dissertation also analyzes the effect on investment decision-making due to oil price volatility,risk-free interest rate and dividend yield for PDP,PRP and PAP.Finally,an applicable environment is discussed. This dissertation analyzes the internal and international technology conditions for options applying to OGFP, and discusses the law conditions, and also gives three pieces of advice.There are 3 innovations in this dissertation. 1. It is first that options theory and thinking are drawn up the OGFP field,adding newly the options analysis approach to traditional uncertainty analysis of investment decision-making in OGFP. 2. A new class means and system of OGFP is established,including 4 phases (exploration,development, production,and abandonment) and 4 projects (PEP,PDP,PRP,PAP). 3. It firstly is founded that a set of ROA for life cycle of OGFP. The study result from this dissertation could make the economic evaluation and investment decision-making more scientifically,and have great significance for improving the management theory system of OGFP and the investment decision-making control level of the upstream petroleum industry.