Supply Chain Disruption Risk Analysis And Coordination Research

In those researches about supply chain risk management, most focus on indirect risk management by studying supplier selection and coordination mechanism, delivery network designing, stock controlling, supply contract designing, outsourcing and purchasing policy, supply chain coordination mechanism, manufacture network designing under an environment with uncertainty, but it's hard to recognize risk sources, or risk quantification and risk avoidance strategies are totally different in various kind of industries. Therefore, the research on supply chain risk management is still on the exploration phase. On the other hand, in practice, modern logistics, information and cash always show vulnerabilities before emergency, which makes manager has to have a new look at the structure, strategy and environment of supply chain. So, Studying supply chain risk management, especially for its disruption risk and coordination management has great value in theory as well as practice.The paper started from reviewing related researches and articles, from which conclusions were integrated and made that disruption on supply chain should be considered mostly. Based on this conception, the relationship diagram of supply chain disruption category, its' failure model and disruption source was conceived. Then, principles of Quantity Function Development and Bayesian Statistics were introduced to solve the problem of small probability and hard risk source recognition, as a result, a supply chain disruption risk management process model was proposed from the whole life cycle of risk management. This model has its innovation in QFD and Bayesian used to link disruption factors with uncertainties and even from uncertainties to key business process.Besides, the other contributions of supply chain disruption risk analysis and coordination management are:(1) Signaling Game Model for two stage supply chain under supply disruption was proposed, which uses the encourage policy of manufacture as the basic tool to coordinate supply chain when information about disruption is unshared between supplier and manufacture, and the amount of acceptable deliveries is applied as the signal which truly reflects the degree of supply disruption. At the end of this model, two kinds of coordination strategies were analyzed.(2) Efforts were made to demonstrate scope impacted by demand disruption happened on supply chain. By deeply discussing scenarios of demand disruption, principle of coordination that from the point view of questions from customers and market, how to collect all round information about demand risk and how to take the initiate was concluded, which helps manager to enhance their awareness of information collection and ability to deal with market reflection in an reasonable way.(3) System Dynamics was used to establish a model describing stock levels on different stages of supply chain. And an assistant variable reflecting the degree of logistics disruption was introduced. Hence logistics disruption happening between supplier and warehouse as well as logistics disruption happening between warehouse and retailer were modeled. At last, coordination strategies about how to adopt reasonable stock policy were proposed according to the model simulation.