Analysis And Forecast Of Telecommunications Industry In China

The telecommunications industry is the foundation of the national economy and industry. It plays an indispensable supporting role in the development of national economy. With people's and enterprises'demand of information, development of the telecommunications industry has become one of the countries'important project. Currently, Telecom Operators all whole the world have entered the era of global competition. China's telecommunications industry starts late, the level of development is not high, and the development of the region is uneven. Therefore, taking effective measures for the telecommunications market macro-regulation to promote the balanced and sustainable development of China's telecommunications market is of great significance.Study of the telecommunications market in China has just started. The current researchs often focus on qualitative analysis but few on quantitive analysis. In this paper, we study sustainable development of the telecommunications market and telecommunications'balanced regional development based on quantitive analysis.Firstly, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the status quo structure of the telecommunications industry; Secondly, we take Moran I index which is concluded in spatial autocorrelation method to analyse the telecommunications industry. The index show that the regional differences of China's telecommunications exist. So we use cluster analysis to analyse the regional development of China's telecommunications industry forward; Thirdly, we use gray prediction like constructing GM(1,1) model to study the development of the telecommunications industry. Then we use EWMA statistical process control charts to monitor the development of the telecommunications industry; Lastly, the paper gets conclusions that we should pay attention to regional differences in the telecommunications industry, and propose some policy recommendations for telecommunications'sustainable development.On the one hand, this article assimilates the domestic and foreign scholars'beneficial achievement. On the other hand, it also has some innovation. First, the spatial autocorrelation analysis on the telecommunications industry is the innovation; Second, the statistical data in the telecommunications with a relatively few cases, using the gray prediction method is more appropriate than the traditional time-series forecasting methods .