Study On Fluctuation Of Real Estate Price

During 2003～2004 year, Chinese real estate price has undergone continuous increase. The large margin increase of real estate price has drawn much attention, and it has aroused furious discussion about whether the bubble has arisen in real estate industry. The government has adopted several policies since the beginning of 2005 year. Under macroeconomic control the price was temporarily drawn back.How to look on Chinese real estate price fluctuation, reasonably control its excessive fluctuation and keep macro economy stable is a subject waiting to be studied.The article focuses on real estate price study and the content is divided into three parts:Part One, theories on real estate price. The author probed into different mechanisms of real estate price formation and proposed two theoretical foundations for this article: market supply-demand price mechanism and production price mechanism.Part Two, Study on variation rules of real estate price. Through mechanism explanation and empirical analysis of real estate price variation, the author drew the conclusion that Chinese real estate price index followed Random Walk model and the reaction of index fluctuation to external information was generally symmetrical according to the TGARCH test result.Part Three, Study on Chinese commercial residential price. The author firstly analyzed the reason of relatively high commercial residential price and proved that increasing land trade price is one important reason for it during recent years by Granger test, also drew the conclusion by modeling: presently Chinese commercial real estate price of last period and land trade price of present period account nearly 90% commercial real estate trade price of present period. At the same time by Error Correction Model the author found that the deviation degree between short-term fluctuation of Chinese land trade price , commercial real estate price and their long-term equilibrium relationship is -0.392. At last the author made suggestions on controlling real estate price.Innovation: The author borrowed random walk model which is used a lot in financial time series to model real estate price index and made Conditional Heteroskedastic test to the resid. At the same time the author probed into one of hot real estate issues—commercial residential price and by the application of Error Correction model found the deviation degree between short-term fluctuation of Chinese land trade price , commercial real estate price and their long-term equilibrium relationship.Deficiency: Because that Chinese real estate market was developed relatively lately, in 1998, China started to calculate real estate price index among thirty-five cities including Beijing, Shanghai and from July, 2005 the sample was expanded into seventy. Relatively small sample and the change of index calculation caliber might have affected the empirical result to some degree. In Chapter Three, the author used TGARCH to test the resid after modeling real estate price index with Random Walk model and didn't find information dissymmetry which is common in financial time series. This might have some relationship with the small sample.