| In 2007, the macro economic growth in China is rapid, yearly growing rate close to the level in the reform and open policy initial period, and with the CPI index higher and higher, the real estate price throughout the whole country continues to rise, which again causes a series of discussion on whether there is bubble in the domestic real estate market. With the RMB exchange rate rising continuously, the international trade friction getting intensified and the industry structure facing with the new reform and accommodation, it seems that we are facing the same problem as the Japanese before the Heisei bubble smashed in 1980s, which caused the real estate market and the economy in Japan undergoing the quiet 17 years and not recovering until recently, becoming"the lost ten years"in Japan.What on earth is the Heisei bubble like? Whether the macro-economic situation in China has the comparability with that in Japan? When the bubble development in finance industry is really supreme, how about the real estate market in Japan at that time? Whether we may learn something from the Heisei bubble in Japan? The questions above are always ignored but supposed to be answered and solved with no delay. This paper will do some comparative analysis from the perspective of both macro- economic situation and the real estate market, attempting to solve these problems.This article is divided into 5 chapters. The first chapter of introduction introduces the research background and the research significance, summarizes the domestic and foreign research development, and proposes the research procedure and frame.The second chapter is the rationale, through the elaboration of theory on the bubble origin and change, explaining that the Heisei bubble is the result of many various factors, which has several characteristics such as the unbalanced economic-cycle, community unconsciousness, and non-rational behavior under rational judgment.The third chapter is the analysis of macro-economic traits and system environment in Heisei time. Firstly, it elaborates the macro economic characteristics in Japan and concludes that these characteristics such as"The government and business unites", weak"the main bank"system and the adaptation of the industry structure played an important part in the bubble formation. After that, it analyzes macro-economic indexes in our country, such as the GDP growing rate, growing rate of sale volume in the Industry and mining, and compare the macro-economic situation in the two countries; finally, it comes to the conclusion that the difference is more than the similarity.The fourth chapter is about how the real estate market grew during the Heisei time, comparing to the present real estate market in China. Firstly, its development grew with the macro economic boost and the real estate reacted to the macro economic situation; then, it researches the actual buying need, different from the speculative intention, considering the real population and income factors; and then research the need in our country using the similar indexes; finally, it summarizes the similar situation in both countries.The fourth chapter is analyzes Japan to become the froth time real estate profession situation evenly, and the Chinese present stage real estate industry state of play with it contrast, will review the Japanese housing real estate industry state of play, as well as is becoming the booming time evenly, the real estate industry gets rid of"the trade as the Japanese government to found a nation"the drawing domestic demand fundamental mode, and selects the related profession target to elaborate that the real estate industry is becoming the time state of play evenly, and carries on the analysis to its growth cause, obtains the metropolis population accumulation and the government draws the domestic demand is its real estate industry development prime motors, the Chinese present stage real estate industry state of play and Japan becomes the time to compare the similarity evenly to be bigger than the difference. |
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