Study On The Grey Model Of Shaanxi Province Economy Development

Region-economy system is a complicated, huge system. With the establishment of Chinese socialistic market economy, it is especially important in academic significance and practical value applying techniques and models of quantitative economics to research of region-economic estate and forecast of economical development trend.In 1982, Prof.J.L.Deng founded the Grey System Theory, which studies the uncertain system on the "small sample", "poor information", i.e. "partial information known, partial information unknown" we have. Through creating and excavating the limited information, we could understand the real world, describe its evolvement rule and grasp its running behavior exactly. It has also given us another way to build the economic model with limited datas. In 20 years' development, Grey System has been applied in many scientific fields including industry, agriculture, society, economy, environment, education, military affairs and finance, etc. It also has solved large mount of practical problems concerned with production, life and scientific research. During the time, Grey System itself has formed as a new subject of a self-contained structure system through incessant development. It is full of vital force and foreground that is increasingly recognized by internal and international countries.Firstly, this paper introduces the basal methods of Grey System Theory and its applicability in economy, and secondly studies and analyses Shaanxi economy in many ways. Through clustering analysis to 10 provinces' economic power, definitudes the truth that Shaanxi's economy is in arrears, analyses existed problems in economy developing according to correlative references; secondly, applies the model GM (1, 1), GM( 1 ,N)and GM(0,N)to simulate and forecast economic development trend; Thirdly, with the grey synthetic evaluation method finds out the relational factors which influence Shaanxi development of region-economy; fourthly, discusses the relations among the economy development, environment and resources, and at the same time, offers some feasible and scientific information for reducing the gaps, constituting further economy policy and promoting the whole province's all-around development.