Risk Analysis Of Real Estate Project Investment And Method Research Of The Risk Forecast

After China's entrance into WTO, economic development is progressing towards internationalization, the real estate market will also work with international standards. And now the estate development enterprises need to face both domestic and international markets. Forecasting technology will be increasingly demonstrated its important role as a focus of the real estate developer. At the same time in view of numerous national macro-adjustment policies and bank lending policies in 2007, large number of real estate development companies outside will enter the domestic market, which will make more severe situation to the real estate industry that has been intense competition.In this paper , I start from the stern situation which faces from the current real estate investment embarks, I made the concrete analysis to the real estate project investment risk theory at first, and also carried on the analysis and the elaboration to the real estate project investment risk. I analyzed each kind of risk definition and the characteristic and made a more systematic analysis to the real estate project investment risk factor and the risk recognition methods. I made a contrast and simple analysis to the current real estate investment plan commonly used risk forecast the method, according to necessary of the risk and the forecast, I established the risk forecast model which in the item of using the gray system forecast method and the theory of earned value management of project cost management. Through the example analysis to the Xi'an international square project, I carries on the analysis to the each kind of risk of the process of Xi'an international square investment and made the investment risk forecast which used the establishment model, finally I analyzed the measure to avoid the real estate project investment risk.