The Real Estate Project Risk Assessment Based On The Gray Analysis

Recently, as the hottest industry of all the professions, the real estate industry leads to a fast development of our country’s economy. It especially leads to the fast development of the real estate construction industry, the upstream industry of the real estate industry such as the iron steel and cement industry, the downstream industry of the real estate industry such as the building material and furniture industry and some other industries. The real estate industry is still part of the most important power that makes our country’s economy progress. But in recent years, the rapid development of the real estate industry makes the investment of the real estate overheating. The development has lost its control. As the results of the saying above, a lot of land resource has been wasted and a lot of state-owned assets has been lost, the vacancy rate in commercial housing is increasing obviously, a lot of money has been backlogged. And these will cause a false growth in real estate and lead to a formation of a bubble.Real estate project has some characteristics. The construction cycle is long, the investment amount is huge, the risk could be affected by many factors. So real estate projects usually face huge risk. But in present stage, The vast majority of real estate enterprises in our country do not have a strong sense of security risk, or are lack of the cognition of risk, and are lack of system effective method of real estate project risk management. Therefore, a real estate investment project risk evaluation on the overall system and establishing a set of effective risk management method at the same time are urgent whether in theoretical research or practical application fields.From the perspective of mentioned above, this paper introduces the related theory of real estate project risk evaluation, and build an index evaluation system which builds the real estate project cycle phase as a hierarchy division. The paper combined the grey theory with analytic hierarchy process to build a gray analysis method for real estate project evaluation and comprehensive analysis that is not only qualitative but also quantitative.This method could provide the reference for real estate project risk decision and risk management. This method has considerable practical significance for the smoothly and healthy development of real estate project and real estate industry.