Research And Forecasting Of Regional Mobility Of Human Resources For Science And Technology In China Based On Binary Logistic Regression

Science and technology have become the No.1 source of productivity. Scientific knowledge has become the most important strategic resource of a country, a region or an industry. Being the core of scientific advantage, Human Resources for Science and Technology (HRST) are the important carrier of the production, distribution and application of scientific knowledge. It has vitally significant impact on the social and economic development of a nation.Although the total number of HRST in China is huge, it is a long-run trend that HRST migrate from the west to the east and from small and middle cities to large cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Such flow of HRST among regions creates the relative scarcity of HRST in middle and west China. It is not healthy for the balanced development of regions. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of movement of HRST among region, the factors which have impact on such movement and the forecast for future HRST movement will have great practical values.The essay takes China HRST as research objects and the movements of HRST among regions as major subject. Firstly, it gives related definitions of HRST and its mobility and names the parameters of regional movement of HRST from the point of view of the mechanism of such movement. Secondly, it uses factor analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) to simply the parameters. At last, it builds up the model of forecasting the regional mobility of HRST by using the binary logistic regression and gives the methodology and steps to build the model. It provides a possible way to forecast the mobility of HRST among regions, businesses or departments.