Analysis On The RMB Exchange Rate Changes On China's Agricultural Export Competitiveness

Theoretically, there are two facts of exchange rate changes on the export trade: on the one hand, the level of exchange rate movements can promote or hinder the exports through the price mechanism; on the other hand, the exchange rate risk brought by exchange rate fluctuations can impact the export by influencing exporters' decision making. Then we will ask: does the RMB exchange rate have an impact on the export competitiveness of agricultural products? If so, will it be positive or negative? Will devaluation improve the export competitiveness of agricultural products, will appreciation reduce the export competitiveness of agricultural products? It is under the background which the RMB exchange rate is in the state of appreciating that this article did some research on the level of exchange rate movements and the exchange rate risk on the impact of export competitiveness of agricultural products.The paper is carried out as follows: The first chapter is INTRODUCTION, including the significance and the background of this article,the main content and research methods used by this article, the concept of several different exchange rate and export competitiveness of agricultural products; the innovation of this paper; the second chapter mainly elaborated the research status and the lack on the domestic and foreign exchange rate movements on a country's export competitiveness and the impact of the RMB exchange rate movements on agricultural exports; the third chapter is empirical Analysis. GARCH model used to measure and a chart analysis and measurement method as an analysis tool to detect the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the export competitiveness of our country's agricultural products; the fourth chapter makes some suggestions on how to improve our export competitiveness of agricultural products under against the background of the RMB exchange rate's appreciation.