A Empirical Study Of The Effect Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On Import And Export Trade Of Farm Products In China

In recent years,the RMB exchange rate changes again and again.It is become the focus of attention at home and abroad, the exchange rate is important in international trade adjustment lever and gripper,the change of RMB exchange rate is bound to be a certain impact on China’s import and export trade. Agriculture as the foundation of the national economy industry in China, due to the agricultural development level, degree of marketization and industrialization of agricultural production and the sales conditions factors such as limit, seriously restrict the development of our country agricultural product international trade,it conflicts with our status as an agricultural country. Since July 21,2005,“on the basis of market supply and demand,reference of a basket of currencies,managed floating exchange rate system”,since the change of RMB exchange rate more flexible,at the same time,China’s agricultural products trade from surplus to deficit state,as the world’s major producers and consumers of agricultural products,agricultural products import and export trade is an important part of international trade in our country, is also an important source of export,plus our country is still in the dual economic transition period,the “rural areas and farmers”is still to be solved. Therefore,research on exchange rate movements on the impact of agricultural trade is particularly important.In this paper,through the study of exchange rate movements and agricultural trade relations, further to explore the relationship between them to provide favorable evidence,thus for our country to develop advantageous agricultural products trade policy and exchange rate policy to provide the beneficial reference.This paper uses the method of international economics and econometrics analysis,based on the changes of exchange rate and trade of agricultural products are studied,by combining normative research and empirical research,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method of combining study. Article the first part is introduction, mainly elaborated this article selected topic background, research significance and the research both at home and abroad, reviews the exchange rate movements on agricultural products import and export trade impact study of relevant literature,sums up research achievements of scholars in this field at home and abroad and the research methods, which laid a foundation for follow-up studies in this paper.The second part is theoretical analysis of the impact of international trade currency fluctuations. Using the theory of including the theory of price elasticity in the theory of balance of payments,the J curve effect theory. Thesis the third part is on the basis of theoretical analysis,the evolution of RMB exchange rate system in our country are reviewed and the basic situation of our country’s agricultural products import and export trade. The fourth part is the empirical research part,the data from 1990-2015 as test samples,and analyzes our country agricultural product import and export trade,national income and RMB real exchange rate as an index variable,set the econometrics model to analyze the data.The results show that the current RMB real exchange rate and a negative correlation relationship between China’s exports of agricultural products, with the general international trade theory,and the lag of RMB real exchange rate and China’s agricultural exports were positively correlated. This shows that the hysteresis effect existing in Chinese agricultural products export trade,the study also shows that there is also a lagging effect on China’s import trade of agricultural products. For agricultural exports,lag of RMB real exchange rate appreciation to our country agricultural exports are negatively related to the influence of the lag of the yuan rose by 1%,exports of agricultural products in China will be the corresponding reduced by 0.216%. In the import of agricultural products trade, export after introducing lag issue of real exchange rate determination coefficient of the model, and the lag of RMB real exchange rate influence on China’s agricultural products import positively correlated relationship,namely the lag issue of RMB real exchange rate appreciation of 1%,China’s agricultural imports will increase correspondingly by 0.472%. From the point of balance of payments,exchange rate elasticity of 0.216 for the export of agricultural products demand in China,imported agricultural products demand of exchange rate elasticity was 0.472,both the sum of the absolute value of less than 1, indicating that Marshall- lerner condition in our country agricultural product import and export trade.At the same time this paper also explains the rationality of the our country agricultural product trade deficit. At the end of the paper on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test summary and promote China’s agricultural products trade related policy Suggestions are put forward.