Impact Of RMB Appreciation On China's Import And Export Of Agricultural Products

Currency and foreign currency's exchange rate is the rate of exchange. Under normal circumstances, the devaluation will improve the trade balance; otherwise trade will reduce the balance of payments deficits or surpluses. Therefore, if the yuan revaluation will lead to increased agricultural imports and exports decreased, not conducive to China to improve conditions for agricultural trade, affecting the development of agriculture and increase farmers income levels will also affect China's agricultural products'competitiveness in international market, but this impaction on the price of agricultural products can resole by improving quality and productivity of agricultural labor and other means;The RMB revaluation's impaction on agricultural trade is relevant with the pace of RMB appreciation, the different types of price elasticity of agricultural products, different types of international comparative advantage in agricultural products, expectations of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade of agricultural products, the real appreciation on the delayed impact of agricultural trade, and many other factors.The combined effect of these factors, RMB appreciation on trade in agricultural products will have a positive role in promoting or reverse the suppression effect is difficult to determine, and must use the actual change in the data for empirical analysis.This article mainly on the basis of exchange rate influence import-export trade's correlation theories, through conducts the research and reorganize to our country RMB rate and the agricultural product import and export data, unifies the existing literature search conclusion, selects in July,2005 until June's 2010 related economic data, constructs the model, utilizes the measurement software, carries on the empirical to analyze the RMB revaluation to our country agricultural product import's and export's influence. First introducing the development pross of our country's RMB rate. The process process may divided into three stages:The dual rate of currency exchange system time (1981-1993 years),the single and relatively fixed time (1994-2005 year in July,take the market as the foundation and folating time (in July, 2005 later). In different time, RMB rate have dissimilar influence to import-export trade. Then introduced the theories about exchange rate how to influent import-export trade.Including price-cash flow mechanism, elastic analytic method, absorption analytic method, multiplicator analytic method and currency analytic method. And introducing the Marshall-Lenard's price flexibility theory with emphasis. Then introducing the target on agricultural product export competition, through the value to weigh the competition of our country's main agricultural product.On the basis of formly introduction, with the rate values and agricultural product import and export monthly volume from July 2005 to June 2010, carries on the empirical analysis between RMB revaluation with our country agricultural product import and export.First explaning the data, then testing the stability about the two vabiable. Have the conclusion of under the combined influence of the anticipation and the lagged anticipation,the revaluation have the negative influence to our country agricultural product import-export trade. But from the value size looked that this kind of synthesis influence is not remarkable.Under such mentality instruction, this article finally to, in the the background of RMB revaluation,propose some policies and opinions about how to enhance our country agricultural product import-export trade this provide the theory reference for the government policy decision.