On Foreign Trade Augment And Economic Increase Relation In Guangdong

Robertson,academic leader of Cambridge school,advanced a new economic development theory in the year 1937 and proved foreign trade to be an "engine of economic growth",which means that foreign trade is one of the major power to accelerate economic increase.Firstly this research sets a co-integration model to test the correlation among foreign trade export,import and economic increase.Foreign trade in Guangdong province has experienced a big jump in quality,quantity,increase and trade structure since China's opening up.It has laid a solid foundation for the further development of Guangdong's economy and society and also set an example for the rest provinces and areas to develop foreign trade.This research focuses on foreign trade and economic increase.A co-integration model is built to test whether foreign trade export and import lead to economic increase.The model proves that economy increase has a positive co-integration with foreign trade export and import in Guangdong.And thus supports Robertson's development theory.Secondly,this research tests the correlation between mode structure and economic increase.Mode structure of foreign trade is the base of foreign trade and the reformation of which not only influences the practice of foreign trade but also affects national economic increase.Processing trade takes a dominating position and common trade is less developed in Guangdong province,which features opposite to the mode structure of Zhejiang province.On the study of the two patterns,many researches have concluded different results.Some scholars support processing trade from the angels of technology spread effect,effect among Industries and employment,and proves that processing trade has an irreplaceable effect on economic increase.While other scholars think processing trade is "extracorporeal" to the economy and support the development of common trade.In the second part,this research employs panel data method to analyze the effect of processing trade and common trade,concluding that common trade has a larger contribution to economic increase than that of processing trade.Based on panel data model,this research puts forward some developing strategies for foreign trade in Guangdong province.Thirdly,this research sets a co-integration model to test the correlation between industries and foreign trade.Industry structure in Guangdong province saw a shift form first industry dominating to second industry dominating with service industry being gradually on the rise.The match of foreign trade and industry structure is of vital importance to economy increase.A co-integration is built and Granger casualty test is conducted to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and first industry,second industry and service industry,concluding that each industry has different contribution to foreign trade.At the end of this part,developing strategies are raised to optimize Guangdong's industry structure.This research approaches foreign trade and economic increase form the aspects of quantitative study and qualitative study,and advanced econometrics methods are employed to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and economic increase,mode structure and economic increase,and industry structure and foreign trade.On the bases of the analysis,developing strategies are raised to develop foreign trade and economy in Guangdong province.