Research On The Analysis Method And Model Construction Of Tourism Seasonality

The tourism seasonality is that the distribution of traveller flows and the tourism enterprises receptions is imbalanced, which makes the imbalanced tourist expense and income in most tourist cities and scenic areas. Its manifestation in the difference of tourist quality and income is called off season, busy season and shoulder season. This is one characteristic in all tourist destination, which is called the question easy to understand and hard to solve in the traveling. Its cause mainly has the touris motivation, the tourist condition, the tourist resources and the human factor. The seasonality has produced a series of negative influence, including the environment, the economy and the security problem, which restricts the further development of tourism.Regarding this, tourism business circles, tourist professional circles and tourist authority must have a sober understanding to solve the seasonality problem. First of all, the non-seasonal tourism idea should be set up fundamentally, and then makes the possible arrangement according to the difference of the off season and busy season, thirdly fully display the control action of price leverage, simultaneously strengthens the propaganda incentive and the region cooperation, at last, carries out the absence system.The apply of the common mathematical analysis method to the tourist market time structure such as the time series, the regression analysis and the variance theory is the foundation that help us recognize the tourist market development momentum clearly, which will supply the theory basis of product design in off season and the way to balance the seasonality. First establish the time series model by the simple moving average method and the index smoothing procedures, and tnen establish the linear regression model, the exponential curve model and the polynomial regression model. Last establish the principle variance model to analysis the tourist market seasonality fluctuation with the transportation passenger and the lodging dining income.Qingdao tourism seasonality is obvious because of the resource characteristic, the subjective localization and the festival impetus, and so on. Considers the incomplete establishment of the indicator system, first establish the time series model and regression analysis forecast model to the Qingdao tourist quality and income, and then combinate several forecast method, last obtains the forecast value of Qingdao tourist quality and income in 2008, 2010 and 2015. Next carries on the quantitative analysis to the Qingdao tourism seasonality, which will help us obtain the Qingdao tourism seasonality distribution characteristic more objective and see clearly the trend of development. Finally carries on the comparison to Qingdao and Jinan's tourism seasonality that observe the difference of tourism seasonality in two types of tourism destination. Strenghtens the development of cultural tourism product and fully uses the Olympic Games will effectively weakens the seasonality fluctuation and enables the Qingdao tourism to obtain the qualitative leap.