The Research On The Measure Of Economic Cyclical Fluctuation Of China

"the research on the measure of economic cyclical fluctuation of China",Based on the research of the meaning of economic cyclical fluctuation,the paper introduces the basic classification of economic cyclical fluctuation, reviews the theories of economic cyclical fluctuation on the order of time,and introduces the basic thoughts of the measure of economic cyclical fluctuation.Then,by the research of CPI.stock market and estate,it summarizes the fluctuation of macroeconomy. On the research of the general methods for estimating the economic cyclical fluctuation, it decomposes time series , sets up the estimating index system by choosing proper indexs and select the methods to compact the Economic State Index(ESI).Combined the datas between 1982 and 2007 of our country,it makes a demonstration research by the"Principal Components Analysis"methods to reckon the ESI of our country,then divides and analyzes the economic cycles of our country.At the same ,it makes a comparison with the traditional methods. And,it makes a predict by the method of BP Neural Networks. At last,it comes to a conclusion and gives some suggestions.Chapter 0, "preface".By the analysis of the economic circumstances of our country,it gives the necessity and significance to make a research of economic cyclical fluctuation,and determine the contents.methods and innovation of the research.Chapter I, "the basic theories to measure economic cyclical fluctuation ".First,it introduces the phylogeny of the concept of economic cyclical fluctuation,and makes clear the meaning of economic cycle.Then it introduces the basic classification of economic cyclical fluctuation, reviews the theories of economic cyclical fluctuation on the order,and introduces the basic thoughts and steps to measure economic cyclical fluctuation.Chapter II, "the current situations of economic cyclical fluctuation of China".First,it gives the running situations of our macroeconomy recently,and it summarizes the fluctuation of macroeconomy by the research of CPI .stock market and estate.Chapter III,"the research on the measure of economic cyclical fluctuation of China".On the research of the general methods for estimating the economic cyclical fluctuation, it decomposes time series , sets up the estimating index system and select the method to compact the Economic State Index(ESI).Then, combining the datas from 1982 to 2007 of China,it makes a demonstration research by the"Principal Components Analysis"methods to reckon the ESI of our country,then divides the economic cycles of our country and analyzes the features of economic fluctuation. At last,it makes a comparision between the results of this method and traditional method.Chapter IV, "the forcast of economy of China by the BP neural networks". Based on the research of general thoughts and definite methods of BP neural networks,it makes a predict of the ESI of our country to forcast the ecnomy of our country.Chapter V, "conclusion and suggestions".It makes a conclusion firstly and then gives some corresponding suggestions.