Requirement Forecasting And Strategy Selection Of Regional Energy

The energy is that the mankind depends on for existence, important material base of national economic development, is the important strategic materials which concern the lifelines of the national economy and security. With the high development of economy, the requirement is more and more. The energy conjuncture appeared in 2004.The energy problem has been concerned by the government and experts.There are abundant coal, gas, oil and reproducible resources in Inner Mongolia. After a long time, it has formed good condition of the energy industry. Therefore, it has the potential to become the energy base of our country.Based on the energy economics, the paper first forecasts the energy requirement, and then analyzes the energy balance. At last, the paper gives advice of energy industry development.1. The relationship between the energy and economical development is presented, and then the factors are analyzed which have effects on the energy requirement.2. The paper evaluates several kinds of requirement forecast method, and then decides to choose the Grey Prediction Model. It forecasts the total quantity of the requirement in energy and electricity based on history data. And then, the forecast result is explored to make analysis about the energy balance of supply-requirement and calculate the energy consumption of unit production value, introduce the trend of development. In addition, the traffic restriction to coal outer transportation is discussed.3. At last, this paper presents the guideline about the development of industry,"pay equal attention to energy exploitation and saving, put saving in priority". The suggestions are given about the energy supply and consumption, the plan of the outer transportation in reason, the governmental layout of energy source system.