Research And Design Of Cigarette Requirement Prediction System Facing Commercial Enterprise Of Tobacco Industry

Tobacco Industry is facing the opening of markets and the promotion of "Supply by Orders". It is therefore becoming essentially important for commercial enterprise of tobacco industry to accurately forecast the demand of cigarette market. A good forecast of cigarette requirement is very necessary, for it will not only promote the cooperation among the industrial and commercial enterprises, but also improve the marketers' capability to adjust to the fluctuation of the cigarette market. At the same time, a good forecast will be helpful for the design of scientific brand strategies, and it will enhance the enterprise's flexibility to adapt to the situation of the market. At last, a good forecast will maintain healthy development of the enterprises. Therefore, this paper has done the research on the forecast of cigarette requirement under the background of "Supply by Orders", and with utilizing the requirement forecasting technology and computer information technology it has also designed the cigarette requirement prediction system for commercial enterprise of tobacco industry.Firstly, the paper has made study on the method and relevant theory of the Market Requirement Prediction, especially on quantitative models for the Requirement Prediction. It has also summarized the features of different quantitative models and their applicable conditions in order to lay a theoretical basis for designing the model for the cigarette requirement prediction.Secondly, this paper, according to the features of the cigarette requirement prediction, has designed one distinctive forecasting procedure, called "three-dimensional and three-level" procedure. "Three-dimensional" refers to the marketing sector, purchasing (brand) sector and order sector. The work of the marketing sector is divided into three parts, in the charge of one customer manager, one marketing manager and one sales manager. Moreover, the final forecasting result derives from "three-dimensional" forecasting procedure, which not only predicts the total amount of cigarette but also provides the prediction of the single-brand.Thirdly, this paper, in the light of the features of different forecast models, has designed several applicable forecasting models, which are based on the analysis of the results provided by "three-dimensional" procedure. These models would enhance the application of forecasting models, and improve the accuracy of the requirement prediction,Finally, the software of the requirement prediction system has been developed in this paper with the help of B/S model. This paper has also designed functional modules of the system on the basis of analyzing the demand of the system and studying the requirement prediction procedure. The paper utilizes Eclipse Release 3.0.1 as the development platform, and employs Struts framework which is based on the MVC model to develop Web application program. Apache Tomcat 5.0 is chosen as the Web server. And Oracle 9i is used for the background database. Through the whole system, the goal of the cigarette requirement prediction system for commercial enterprise of tobacco industry is achieved. This system takes on nice man-machine conversation. And the forecasting result is direct and accurate, which will provide the date support for the policy-makers.This paper not only makes study on the total amount prediction, but also studies the single-brand cigarette prediction. Thus, it is useful for improving the precision of the cigarette requirement prediction, and will boost the development of the single-brand. Meanwhile, the paper, on the basis of the traditional requirement prediction methods, has designed applicable forecasting models which are combined with different forecasting targets, thus it realizes the innovation of the forecasting methods.