Study On Carrying Capacity Of Land In Yucheng District Ya'an City

As the development of society and economy, the conflict between people and land becomes more and more prominent, in order to utilize the land resource sustaining and develop harmoniously among people, resource and environments in a distinct, the study on carrying capacity of land is always an important area in land science. Yucheng was selected as the research area, which is situated in the southwest part of Sichuan in Yaan city. Based on the database of present land use situation, population, social economy and living level of consumption from 1995 to 2005, the paper adopted the GM (1, 1) model and time series model to forecast the potential land productivity in yucheng in 2015, and analyzed the carrying capacity of land, then appraised the supply and demand in carrying capacity of land, finally analyzed the influence factor of carrying capacity of land in a distinct using the principal component analysis. The conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1)Based on the dynamic changes of population, crops and main animal products in yucheng distinct of yaan city from 1995 to 2005, this paper adopted the GM (1,1) model and time series model to forecast that the population will be 389.78 thousand in yucheng in 2015; the production of crops including food supplies, vegetable oil, vegetable and fruit were as follows: 31430.4ton, 1416.53ton, 6858.89ton, 243825.576ton; the production of main animal products including meat, eggs and milk were as follows: 50367.385ton, 9801.91ton, 57622.74ton.(2)The paper established the nutritional ingredient standard of main consumptive foods in yucheng distinct of yaan city, combined with the forecast results of main consumptive foods in 2015, then calculated gross quantities of the nutritional ingredient , then the paper collected the nutritional ingredient in class, the conclusion is as follows: Protein 14.18million gram, fat 31.46 million gram, quantity of heat 1983 billion kilojoules.(3)The conclusion of the supply and demand in carrying capacity of land shows: no matter the kind of just having enough to eat and wear, the kind of relatively comfortable life or the kind of relatively richness, the predicted population is less than the predicted carrying capacity of land. In the standard of the kind of just having enough to eat and wear, the carrying capacity of land is 517.99 thousand, the balance of carrying capacity of land is 128.21 thousand; in the standard of the kind of relatively comfortable life, the carrying capacity of land is 457.05 thousand, the balance of carrying capacity of land is 67.27 thousand; in the standard of relatively richness, the carrying capacity of land is 408.94 thousand, the balance of carrying capacity of land is 19.16 thousand.(4)The paper put forward problems in the land use, including: per capita land area is few, per capita infield area is not enough; the economic benefit of woodland and garden plot is few; the areas of field with middle and lower yield are large, the land unexploited do not use well. According to the problems, the paper advances some suggestions, including: controlling the population increases, remitting the conflict between land and people; improving the economic benefit of woodland and garden plot; spreading the operative technology vigorously, improving the economic benefit of field; exploiting and renovating the land unexploited.