Research On Land Carrying Capacity In Laohekou City

Laohekou is situated in the northwest part of Hubei province, which is the important base of grain production.This paper studies its current and future status of the land carrying capacity, will have the extremely vital significance. The paper takes Laohekou city as an example, calculated and analyzed at the different stages of the land carrying capacity. Then suggestions are provided for some possible solutions of the current problems with regard to the land utilization.It will alleviate between Laohekou's population and land's contradiction to provide an effective way.The whole research is divided into three parts:In the fist part includes the chapter 1 and 2. In the fist part, mainly introduced the background of choice about this topics and the significance to research; the definition of the related concept; some related theoretical knowledge; the overview in this area research both at home and abroad and existing problems; the objectives of this study; the research methods and technology line.In the second part includes the chapter 3 and 4, the paper uses some methods to forecast the immediate-term,medium and long-term population,and ascertains a scale of population in Laohekou city according to the different accuracy of these methods.Then it predicts the unit production and total output of the main crops in Laohekou with the sectional comprehensive model combined with the inclination's extrapolation.After calculating the crops'(rice,wheat,corn,rape,cotton,tabacoo) potential productivity took advantage of AEZ model,the article forecasts the land demand of the main crops and the construction in Laohekou city.The analysis about the future land carrying capacity is made from the above calculation. The paper establishes that there will be surplus of land carrying capacity from 2010 to 2030.The idea and method about relative carrying capacity of resources is taken.The relative carrying capacity of natural resources, economy resources and synthetic capacity and their dynamic changes of Laohekou city from 1999 to 2005 are calculated. Conclusions are that synthetic carrying capacity is the overloading of the bearing capacity.Finally, the paper puts forward problems and suggestions in the land use.