Study Of Our Country Agricultural Listed Company Financial Crisis Early Warning Model

Going deep into and spreads out with economic globalization , the competition between enterprises is more and more fierce. Under so-called aspect, various risk sum facing the enterprise is beset with crisis , enterprise needs badly build a set of financial affairs crisis early warning mechanism. Agriculture listed company is the main force of agricultural industrialization course .Because of it's characteristic, the financial affairs crisis early warning system is different from others. Agriculture listed company is confronted with natural risk and marketplace risk pressure, so we have to build financial affairs crisis early warning system to evade risk for agriculture listed company and provide the forceful basis shifting to an earlier time diagnosing and resolving a crisis.The purpose of my research is to build the financial affairs crisis early warning model being suitable to agricultural listed company. Logistic regression and mlutiple discriminate analysis is the main methods of the article,and make use of agriculture listed company financial affairs data of our country to carry out the company financial affairs crisis early warning model's studies. And by the fact that demonstration studies the model having built agriculture listed company suitable,have got fairly good forecast effect.Study result displayed, net asset earning ratio, the agriculture income take up the host camp business income percentage , the total assets turnover rate , current ratio and host camp income cash contents have the comparatively good early warning ability in logistic model. In F fraction model middle, host camp business income growth rate, operating funds / end of term total assets, end of term retained earnings / end of term total assets, (aftertax pure profit + depre-ciation) / average general liabilities, end of term stockholder's equity marketable value / end of term general liabilities and (aftertax pure profit + interest + depreciation) / average total assets have fairly good early warning ability. It explains that in different model the different index just has the fairly good early warning ability, and in different model different types companies require different early warning index. This is also the necessity that the agriculture listed company have to do financial affairs crisis early warning model research.The logic return model and mlutiple discriminate model have their own good points. Make use of the logic return model to be able to facilitate much problem, The fundamental problem is facilitated, being fixed one company is to belong to some's specially appointed one , how much the probability the company is going to be bankrupt?And Logic return model forecast accuracy is also ve-ry good. Relative to logic return, the mlutiple discriminate model having also shown the fine forecast ability. If synthesizing whose every aspect characteristic,such as perception , intelligibility , simple and convenient, mlutiple discriminate model is better than logistic rcgression model. Therefore, mlutiple discriminate model still have substantial progress space in agriculture listed company financial affairs crisis forecast.