The Design About Financial Distress Discriminant Analysis Mode Of Companies In Chian's Stock Market

Since the day that the Chinese capital market was established, it's scale and speed has already get through the procedure which western countries expended a hundred years . The fourteen years of development proclaim clearly that Chinese has already compassed collective recognition in both side of the direction of developing market economy and the position of Chinese capital market in developing Chinese economy. The Chinese capital market exerts important stimulative affect to develop Chinese economy, but it exist many problems.According to the statistics, these were more than 100 companies in Chinese capital marker been lost and more than 70 companies been warned in the middle of 2001.It was the new record of Chinese capital market. How to estimate the financial condition objectively is very important to the companies in Chinese capital market , especially to the companies that be forecasted to be lost in finance probability. It is useful for investors and controllers to adjust invest decision in time. It is also useful for invest banks to explore potential clients.This dissertation is aimed to the obvious defect of ordinary model to identify companies'financial crisis that is only based on sectional data. It is based on the companies'financial data of successive several years .It use this data to construct horary data array that is compatible to identify financial crisis. And this dissertation use this horary data array to construct Financial Distress Discriminate Analysis Model, so this model can improve the information content of financial data. This model is based on method of factor analysis that can obvious improve the standard and preciseness of Financial Distress Discriminate Analysis Model. The practicality examine consequence prove that this model can provide relative accurate sign before two years when the company become lost ( the correctness is 70%). By compare with other discriminate analysis models, this dissertation can explain the advantage that this model bases on method of factor analysis is more preciseness. And the practicality examine consequence also show this method can provide foundation to correlative research afterwards.