Empirical Research About Agglomeration And Dispersion Of Major Cities In China

Since reform and opening-up, the disparity in urban and rural areas of our country is increasing constantly. Even to this day, our country has already become the country with the biggest gap in urban and rural areas in the world. To find out the reason of the disparity in urban and rural areas from the perspective of quantitative analysis becomes the direction which most scholars study at present. The structure theory of regional space thinks: aggregating and diffusing are the motive force of balanced non-balanced balanced on a high level. Therefore, the thing finding out the conversing scale of aggregating and diffusing makes some contribution to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas in China. This paper regards 186 cities of our country in 1990 as the researching objects, including 30 provincial capitals, 5 specifically designated cities in the state plan and 151 prefecture-level cities besides Lhasa. This paper has collect the continuous time array data of every city from 1990 to 2005.It has considered the influence of the human capital emphatically on the basis of already studying. At the same time, it uses the stock of material capital and people's scale after revising and structure the panel data model to estimate the relative scale incomes of every city and relative outside cost separately. Then through comparing and analyzing the income and cost, find out the scale that from aggregating to diffusing of the city. The result shows that the stocks of human capital has positive relevant with the city size. And only Shanghai reaches the stage of diffusing in our country. Other cities are all at developing stage specializing in gathering. And in these cities, the growth rate of the scale incomes of the most cities should be faster than its outside cost.This text is divided into four chapters altogether besides preface:Chapter one, introduce the basic theories that the city aggregating and diffusing mainly. Being divided into three small parts again is the basic law of the city size change separately; the city gathers and influence factor, the city spread and influence factor, the document survey of and relevant research.Chapter two, introduces the impact on city development of the human capital mainly, especially to introducing the advantage method of manpower in the production function, and the method to choose to the capital index of manpower, etc.Chapter three, An Empirical Analysis of the city size in this chapter is totally divided into four parts. First part is empirical models. In the second part we make use of relevant data on estimating the income of China's urban areas function and external estimated cost function. Taking account of the results of the two estimates, we obtain the scale of agglomeration and dispersion of major cities in China.Chapter four, makes a conclusion of this paper, and gives some policy recommendations.