The Empirical Analysis On China's Terms Of Trade And Economic Growth

The relationship between trade and economic growth has always been argued all over the world. This dissertation analyzes the relationship between them in China from the angle of terms of trade; and also makes a quantitative analysis on the relationship by using co-integration method.This dissertation is mainly divided into four parts. The first one is literature review. It mainly introduces the current situation of the theory of terms of trade home and abroad. The second one is our country's change and trend of the terms of trade. It mainly includes the evolution of our country's terms of trade and the courses of changes of terms of trade in our country. It studies the varying state on our country's terms of trade from 1981 to 2006. Though the volume of foreign trade of our country has been increases constantly and the import and export trade structure has been updating in these years, the net barter terms of trade is always presenting a deteriorating trend. Different with the deteriorating trend of our country's terms of trade, the income terms of trade has been showing a rising trend from 1982. Through the research we found that the main reasons of terms of trade in our country are :( 1) The variation of index of import price ;( 2) The quantity of export is increasing while the quality is not;(3) The variation of import and export trade goods structure;(4) The export promotion policy is not perfect;(5) The influence of foreign direct investment. And the main reason of rising trend of income terms of trade is the big increase of export. The third part of dissertation is the empirical analysis. The author use the method of co-integration analysis and granger test to research some date of China from 1981 to 2006 such as the real GDP , the net barter terms of trade index of, exc. And also studies the relationship between China's economic growth and terms of trade. The fourth part includes the basic conclusions and policies. The result of the analysis and study shows that there exists a stably dynamic equilibrium relation between them in the long haul, and China's economic growth has the remarkable influence on the terms of trade while the influence of terms of trade on economic growth, whereas the effect terms of trade has on economic growth is not obvious. And the author also proposed the corresponding policies and suggestions on improving our country's deterioration of terms of trade.