Research On The Development Of Port-Surrounding Industry Based On System Dynamics Model

With the promotion of economic globalization, the accelerated development of regional integration, the port-surrouding industry as the new growth pole to promote regional economic development is now being more and more concern and attention. At present, many domestic and foreign ports have built their own port-surrounding industrial systems, it's proved that the port-surrounding industry has played a tremendous role in promoting the port, city and the entire surrounding region's economic development and social progress through concentration, radiation effects.In order to promote the development of port-surrounding industry, I try to reveal the port-surrounding industrial development mechanism in the regional economic system, and the relationship between three subsystems which are the port-surrounding industry, the port and socio-economic system. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to analyze the intrinsic factor and the external environment of the whole system, and make the factors which have an impact on the port-surrounding industrial development clear and quantitative through system dynamic model, in the end I make a simulation computing and policy simulation analysis by using the Vernism software.In this paper, the content is divided into four sections, the first section focous on the theoretical and empirical analysis on the development of port-surrounding industry, including the discussion on the port-surrounding industrial mechanism from the views of the Industrial Economics, the Regional Economics and the Industrial Clusters, and Japanese port-surrounding industrial development experience; the second section builds a system dynamics model on the development of port-surrounding industry with the anterior theoretical analysis; Thirdly, the system dynamics model is used in Dalian, Liaoning province, calculate the consequence of the main factors which impact the Dalian port-surrounding industrial development most in Liaoning Province; in the end, this paper offers some development proposals for Dalian port-surrounding industry based on the Liaoning specific environment, as well as the results of model. This paper obtains from the model computing that: in the circumstances that Dalian cargo demand relatively low, to increase the port investment can not bring us greater growth of the regional economic, on the contrary, to increase the fixed assets investment and the level of comprehensive technology of port-surrounding industry could not only improve the port-surrounding industrial output, but also will greatly increase the throughput of the port and the gross national product.