Dynamic Fleet Planning For Ship Corporation In Uncertain Circumstance

Under the action of increase of global trade, the demand of the ocean shipping grows rapidly, and brings forward the requirement of the increase of the ship. As the price of the ship is high, and the investment recovery period is long, so, the investment and update of the fleet is an important economic decision-making of the ship corporation. And how to reduce the cost, enhance the competition of competitive power become the focus of the ship corporation. Moreover, the fluctuation of the shipping market is comparatively great, and has big influence to the development of the fleet. Thereby, how to make the fluctuation effects embodiment in the decision-making of the fleet is very important. This paper studies the dynamic fleet planning for ship corporation in uncertain circumstance, and tries to offer some feasible theory for the update decision-making of the fleet.Based on careful analysis of the research in and abroad, this paper first expounds the summarization of the fleet planning, introduces the theory of uncertain planning. And import grey—Markov chain model to the forecast of the demand, and get the future demand and transition probability matrix of the next five years. Secondly, a dynamic fleet planning model in uncertain circumstance is established from the view of cost optimization with the capacity, and volume constraints. Then, take company A as an example, this paper layouts the fleet plan of the next five years, and works out the best ship routing scheme. Lastly, the main findings and the limitation of this research are displayed, and makes some expectation of the study.The results show that, the import of the grey—Markov chain makes the result of forecast more veracious, and the model has preferable adaptability for introducing uncertain planning theory.