Research Based On The System Dynamics About The Coordinated Development Between The Oil Resource's Development And The Socio-Economic System

Oil is the world's most important energy supplies, and also the majority of the country'seconomic and political development of strategic goods. In the 21st century, China's petroleumand natural gas development and construction decide if the new century country can achievethe grand goal of building,and have been the important ingredient for a country to become aworld power. The development prospects of oil and gas affects China's economic developmentand political stability, and affects the country's economic security. From the beginning of the1960s, the discussion and research on the development and utilization of resources has alreadybegun. Resources, the environment and other issues have faced in front of us sharply. Thedevelopment and utilization of the resources has reached a critical period.Based on the theory of Coordinated development, socio-economic system theory andoil resources capacity theory, this paper analyses cause-and-effect relations and internalinformation feed-back structure of the oil resources, socio-economic and ecological conditionsapplying the principle and methods of system dynamics . Then it draws the stock and flowdiagram of system dynamics. Further, according to the latest data of China, it establishes aninteractive computer-based economics model. By verifying model and comparing with the realdata, the result of this model is similar with real data. Finally, this thesis simulates and predictsthe use of oil resources and the status of social and economic development, ecological andenvironmental conditions before 2016, and makes an analysis and suggestions on the basis ofthe simulated results and problems. The results of the researches show that the systemdynamics method can is useful in the large, dynamic, complex and high uncertainty systemssuch as oil resources and socio-economic system. It will have broad prospects in theapplication of resource - socio-economic field. What's more, the study provides a reference for coordinated development of the oil resources and socio-economic system. It also helps thegovernment to get a rational allocation of resources and a better macro-control of socioeconomic.