SD Modeling And Simulation For Sustainable Development Of Energy-Environment-Society-Economic System

Human activities have been focus on the scale of economic development and GDP growth rate, while they always ignoring the ecological carrying capacity and split a variety of factors in the role of the ecological cycle, at last their works lead to climate change, and not only ultimately endanger the survival environment of mankind but also hinder our production. It is precisely because this series of ecological crisis, the human become to known that we can't continue the looting-style development to seek the recent interests and objectives, instead, we should achieve coordinate development among the various factors. To ease the energy and environmental issues on soc-economic development bottleneck is the overall strategic issues, we hope that to apply of System Dynamics to build a dynamic, complex giant system model in order to solve the contradiction between the socio-economic and energy-environment system, at last, to realize the coordinated and sustainable development between them.Based on the principle of system dynamics, we analyzed in energy, environmental, social and economic and the development status of the of each subsystem to determine the model boundaries, not only proposed key indicators relating to the model, but also to determine the causal relationship between indicators and information feedback mechanisms, and analysis of the quantitative relationship between the various indicators. VENSIM software, which can be used to establish a computer running system dynamics model on energy-environment and socio-economic system, , with data of 2000-2008 we get a very good fitting results, indicate the model can be used letter.Finally the model predicts China's 2009-2014 total energy output, GDP, national standard of living, environmental pollution accumulation and other indicators, as well as simulation results are analyzed and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. This study on how to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of the energy-environmental and soc-economic, the reference can use for the country's macro-policies of strategic recommendations.