Study On Coordinated Development Of Resource Carrying Capacity And Urbanization Quality In Water Source Area Of Southern Shaanxi Based On System Dynamics

In the rapid development of urbanization stage, the urbanization rate of China will reach about 60% at 2020. For a long time, the rapid growth of the economy depends on high input,high consumption, high pollution, low efficiency and extensive growth mode, "resource for growth" mode of development is still widespread, resulting in rapid urban economic development and population agglomeration on regional resources. The environment problem have caused great pressure. Resources and environmental protection capacity of the construction and urtbanization development of the inconsistent contradictions intensified, so that the process of urbanization has become a "double-edged sword." With the increase of the importance of social resources to the environmental resources, guided by the construction of ecological civilization, in order to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of natural ecology, the economic development is coordinated with the carrying capacity of population,environment and resources, has become the city Construction theme. Therefore, under the guidance of improving the quality of urbanization in the water source area, it is necessary to understand whether the curent resources and ecological environment of the water source area meet the enormous pressure brought by the rapid urbanization and how to solve the bottleneck constraints of the rapid development of urbanization. Water resources in the local area of Shaanxi Province, the combination of economic and environmental development, the choice of urbanization model for their own characteristics, truly "intensive, intelligent, green, low carbon"urbanization is the current and future period of time Key issues to be solved urgently? In this paper, the selected water resources in southern Shaanxi belong to the economically underdeveloped areas, and the region is rich in water and metal mineral resources. In the process of urbanization, the urbanization rate has been improved, the resource consumption is fast, urbanization low quality and weak resource carrying capacity and other issues. Currently there is little research of resources carrying capacity and urbanization quality's coordinated development in the water sources area research. Therefore, how to coordinate the resource carrying capacity of urban water resources and the coordinated development of urbanization quality is the focus of this paper. Presently , most researches about the carrying capacity of urban resources and the quality of urbanization remain at the qualitative description of the relationship between the two, so how to analyze the internal dynamic impact process from the quantitative level is an important academic research problem.This paper applies the system dynamics simulation tool, combined with system management decision theory, coordinated development theory to reach the relationship between resource carrying capacity and urbanization quality and coordinated development in the south of Shaanxi Province. Firstly, on the basis of summarizing the research achievements of scholars at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the classification of water resources and its constituent elements. Secondly, according to the analysis of the driving factors of the quality of urbanization in the water source area, the system dynamics model of the resource carrying capacity and the urbanization quality of the water source area in southern Shaanxi is established.Thirdly, combined with the theory of coordinated development and the theory of system management decision-making, the different development scenarios are set up, and the simulation analysis is carried out respectively to provide the development plan basis for the coordinated development of resource carrying capacity and urbanization quality of water resources in southern Shaanxi. Then, through the case study of the water source area in southern Shaanxi, the results are analyzed and the results are analyzed according to the simulation results.Finally, according to the results of the analysis of the water resources in southern Shaanxi Province and the quality of urbanization to achieve coordination and sustainable development to provide relevant recommendations.The significance of this study is that, on the one hand, the simulation decision-making method is applied to the resource carrying capacity and the quality of urbanization in the water source area, and the research field of the system dynamics simulation is expanded. On the other hand, To provide theoretical basis for decision-making.