Study On Financial Risks Early-Warning Of Listed Company

With the deepening of economic reform in China, the exterior environment of com-petition our companies facing is more and more vigorous. Many companies are interfering with financial crisis. It is more frequent that the enterprises run into financial distress or bankruptcy, which not only jeopardize the development of enterprise but also bring great losses to the investors or creditors. So, it's necessary for companies to raise their anti-risk ability, which will enable them to detect the potential danger as early as possible. There-fore, finding ways to monitor the process of finance operation, discovering as early as possible the signals of financial crisis, forecasting the financial position of enterprise is clearly a mater of considerably meaningful to all the interested groups.Based on the former studies on financial early-warning, this paper summarizes the key output of research in this field and introduces related theories and approaches about it. Additionally, it also adopts the Z-score model and the Failure-score model to predict the financial position of the JIANGLING MOTORS CO., LTD and YUTONG BUS Co., LTD. Because the establishment of Z-score model is based on oversea financial data, it selects about 20 listed companies of automobile industry which are similar to JIANGLING and YUTONG so as to verify the applicability of the Z-score models on such companies. And then it forecasts and compares the predictive results with the real financial position of each company in certain year. The experimental results show that the Z-score model is suitable for such companies. Following, with the Z-score model, Failure-score model and the fi-nancial index system of early-warning, the financial position of JIANGLING and YUTONG in year of 2007 is predicted. Finally, some suggestions on curing the financial problem of JIANGLING and YUTONG in its future development are proposed.