The Study Of The Contribution Of Import To China's Economy

With the development of high technology, many scholars found that the role of imports in the economic growth should not be overlooked through the study. Imports are gotten more and more attention. Set the United States as an example. According to the statistics'paper, in the United States as advanced technology imports'proportion to the total ones is increasing, high-tech industry's contribution to the economic growth constantly strengthen. In United States'economic growth, at least 27% should be attributed to the high technology industry and the import of high-tech. It has already become a powerful driving force of the economic growth. From the experience, it rise the thought that whether the imports'negative role in the economy is right or not, from the harsh mercantilist era when it supports"prizing the export and limit the import". In China once with the export-oriented strategy that emphasis export too much, imports'important role to China's economic growth has been severely neglected.This paper will use the data between 1989 and 2006 to do empirical Analysis by setting up model.First, we use the data of import volume and GDP to do the Granger causality test in order to prove their causal relationship, then do the regression analysis to identify the rate of contribution to China's economic growth. Second, we use the import good data to do the empirical analysis as classifying the varieties of the goods by setting the ADL model. We use SITC and revealed technology value-add theory as the standard of the goods'classification. Through the analysis, it will be counted the rate of contribution to the economic growth. Finally, we'll do the further explanations about the mechanism of the import's positive role to the economic growth.Through this analysis, the following basic conclusions:First, import plays a stimulating role to the economic growth as export, while in the long term, imports'driving role is more obvious than the role of export and there's causal relationship between import and economic growth.Second, Imports of Capital-intensive products and Technology-intensive products will promote the growth of economy. Capital-intensive products' contribution to the economy is 25.59 and the technology-intensive products'is 3.1.Third , Imports of Energy-intensive products and Labor-intensive products will inhibit China's economic growth. Energy-intensive products'contribution degree is -8.17 and the Labor-intensive products'is -38.46.At present, China still faces many problems such as growing trade friction, improving industrial structure as well as the potential threat of escalation of the industrial structure. The moderate expansion of China's imports is benefit to improve the industrial structure, trade imbalances and ease trade friction and other issues. To boost our country's economic growth and sustainable development ,it brings strong driving force and economic growth source.